California farmers backed Trump. Now, his tariffs could hurt them

A day after President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on three of the country’s biggest trading partners, many California farmers, who produce the largest share of the nation’s food, were worried the move could hurt their operations.

The state’s rich fertile ground is a major global supplier of produce and its farmers could be hit hard as Canada, Mexico and China retaliate by slapping levies on U.S. exports. Farmers also rely heavily on fertilizer from Canada, which could cost more as the tariffs take hold.

“I’m very worried that it could affect the entire tomato industry,” said Bruce Rominger, who grows tomatoes along with other produce on a farm in Yolo County in the Sacramento Valley.

Mexico and Canada are two of the biggest customers for the Roma tomatoes that burst out by the millions up and down the Central Valley at the end of every summer and are then canned. Farmers worry that processors who export the canned tomatoes will face steep retaliatory tariffs that will drive down demand in those countries or pressure the growers to lower their prices.

The Trump administration has imposed a tariff of 25% on products from Canada and Mexico, and a doubling of the
tariff on China, to 20%.

Canada swiftly announced a series of tariffs on U.S. imports in retaliation. China also responded by announcing tariffs of 15% on many U.S. farm products, including cotton, which grows across thousands of acres in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Mexico said it would detail its tariffs Sunday.

“Yeah, he can do damage to the Canadian economy,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a speech Tuesday, “but he is going to rapidly find out, as American families are going to rapidly find out, it’s going to hurt people on both sides of the border.”

The tariffs come as California farmers already are rattled by worries that a massive deportation effort — which Trump promised during his campaign — could decimate the ranks of low-wage farmworkers who plant and harvest crops. As many of half of California’s farmworkers are undocumented, according to studies.

The Trump administration also perplexed farmers this year when the Army Corps of Engineers suddenly released irrigation water from two dams just before a rainy winter weekend — not a time when farmers needed or wanted water. Concerns were further stoked in the Central Valley with firings and cuts planned at the Bureau of Reclamation, which operates water infrastructure key to the agricultural heartland.

Still, many farmers, who backed Trump by large margins in the 2024 election, were reluctant to speak openly about their concerns, for fear of being seen as criticizing him or because they hope the administration will protect farmers as it has in the past.

“This is not an easy time for [farmers],” said Daniel Payares-Montoya, a research associate at the Public Policy Institute of California. “They are facing more pressure than before.”

From an economic perspective, he said, trade is supposed to increase the pie for everyone, but politics have created a lot of uncertainty.

The long, flat fields of the Central Valley, tucked between California’s Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada, can feel remote from world affairs. But from orchards of almonds to fields of zucchinis, farmers up and down the state have been watching closely — and with trepidation.

Shannon Douglass, president of California’s Farm Bureau, noted in a statement that the state’s agriculture has been hurt by previous trade wars. During the last Trump administration, retaliatory tariffs from China hit almond growers particularly hard, reducing the price per pound to $1.40 from $2.50, according to one study.

According to a report from the California Department of Food and Agriculture, California farmers exported more than $22 billion worth of food in 2021, with almonds topping the list, followed by dairy products, wine and pistachios.

“California farmers are among the most productive in the world, but the blanket imposition of broad tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China risks inviting retaliation that could harm the very farmers they aim to protect,” Douglass said.

She added that perishable crops, including strawberries, lettuce and dairy, face immediate peril because “trade disruptions can mean spoilage, financial losses and long-term lost market share that was earned over decades.”

Almond exports, Douglass said, dropped by a quarter the last time the U.S. imposed tariffs in 2018 on China “due to retaliatory duties.” California’s almond industry is estimated at about $4.7 billion, with more than 70% of the nuts exported — making it particularly vulnerable to tariffs.

“The California almond industry has been closely monitoring the U.S. announcement of tariffs and potential responses from Canada, Mexico and China,” Rick Kushman, spokesman for the Almond Board of California, said in a statement.

One study found that from April 2018 to April 2022, retaliatory tariffs cost almond farmers about $875 million.

“Our industry continues to support reducing barriers to trade, and smooth market access for California almonds,” Kushman said.

Many farmers noted that during Trump’s first term, when China retaliated to tariffs with its own levies, the federal government tried to make farmers whole by providing subsidies. But it’s unknown whether the administration will do that again.

Daniel Sumner, a distinguished professor of agricultural economics at UC Davis, said farmers could take multiple hits. They could face higher costs for things such as fertilizer and fence posts, some of which come from Canada, and also from retaliatory tariffs on their exports. Canada, he noted, buys 41% of bottled wine exported from California.

On the other hand, he said, some producers may see profits rise. Beef producers that compete with Canadian cattle ranchers, for example, could see an increase in profit. But consumers, he said, probably will see higher prices at the grocery store for many products.